Climate advocates apply the pejorative term “denier” to anyone who does not genuflect at the altar of climate orthodoxy. This term is intended to discredit, not inform. But, is it a true that those who raise questions about the climate orthodoxy are really deniers?
It is not necessary to get wrapped up in a debate about climate sensitivity, solar impacts, cloud formation or other processes that influence our climate. All that is necessary is to compare predictions that have been made since the start of the climate catastrophe campaign with the empirical evidence we have today on how the climate system has actually performed.
In 1988, then senator Al Gore and NASA scientist James Hansen made a number of alarming predictions about an impending climate apocalypse. Hansen in Congressional hearings asserted, “the greenhouse warming should be clearly identifiable in the 1990s” and “the temperature changes are sufficiently large to have major impacts on people and other parts of the biosphere, as shown by computed changes in the frequency of extreme events …” Hansen, based on his climate model, predicted that by 1997 the global temperature would rise by 0.45 degrees C and by 2010 by 2 to 4 degrees. A scientist with the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia went so far as to predict that within “a few years,” snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event” in Britain. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Senator Gore used Senate hearings to promote Hansen’s apocalyptic vision and then went on to write Earth in the Balance documenting his view that the world faced an environmental epidemic requiring that “We must make the rescue of the environment the central organizing principle for civilization.” He used Earth in the Balance to promote and fund the climate change agenda which lead to predictions about run away global warming. Those included predicting that over the next few decades up to 60 percent of Florida’s population would have to be relocated because of rising sea level. There were also predictions about increasing droughts and extreme weather events like hurricanes.
Now that almost three decades have passed since those predictions took on a life of their own, it is possible to see the extent of their accuracy.
The forecasts made by James Hansen and supported by Al Gore that global temperature would increase 0.45 degrees C by 1997 and 2 to 4 degrees by 2010 were off by a factor of 4 and 10. Indeed, since 1998 there has been no significant increase in temperature. And, while advocates proclaim that each year is one of the warmest on record, recent temperatures are not much different than those of the early decades of the 20th century.
Clearly, Al Gore exaggerated on the need to relocate 60% of Florida’s population. In fact, since 1992, according to the Congressional Research Service, global sea level rise has averaged 0.13 inches per year or about 3 inches in total. Estimates of sea level rise along the Florida coast are higher but not alarming—around 6 inches.
That leaves predictions about increasing droughts and extreme weather—hurricanes. The data tell a much different story. Hurricane frequency has declined slightly and intensity has not changed. As for droughts, Dr. Roger Pielke in Congressional testimony stated, that droughts have “for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U. S. over the last century. Globally, “there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.”
The comedian Groucho Marx once asked, “who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” Climate advocates would have everyone believe them even though empirical data doesn’t support their claims. Climate skeptics deny the faux science that is the foundation of climate orthodoxy while climate advocates deny how the climate system has actually performed. So, who is the real denier? Groucho Marx provided the easiest way to answer that question.